Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
